Pemodelan Gaussian Plume pada Sebaran Abu Vulkanik sebagai Sistem Peringatan Dini

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Abstrak

Indonesia is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire and hosts 129 active volcanoes, including Mount Ibu in Halmahera Regency, North Maluku. Mount Ibu, standing 1,340 meters above sea level, has shown increased volcanic activity since 2008, with 2,136 eruptions recorded up to 2025. This study aims to apply the Gaussian Cloud Model to simulate the distribution of volcanic ash, especially PM10, and map the potential impacts of the eruption of Mount Ibu as part of an early warning system. Data were obtained from PVMBG. The modelling results show that volcanic ash dispersed toward the northwest, reaching a maximum concentration of 2.35 × 10⁻¹⁸⁸ μg/m³. A MATLAB-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to visualize the ash distribution. The highest concentration occurred around the Talen region, near the eruption source, and gradually decreased in other areas such as Tolofu and Gam Ici due to particle dispersion and dilution. These findings indicate that the proposed model can support early warning systems and contribute to disaster mitigation efforts related to volcanic activity