Analisis Peramalan Inflasi Di Kota Balikpapan Menggunakan Metode ARIMA

Authors

  • Gebryani Rante Lembang Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Balikpapan, Indonesia
  • Mega Silfiani Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Balikpapan, Indonesia
  • Irma Fitria ITK

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35718/specta.v7i3.1026

Keywords:

ARIMA, Inflation, Forecasting, RMS

Abstract

Uncontrolled inflation is one of the problems in a country's economy. This is because inflation is used as a reference for monetary policy. However, controlling the inflation rate is relatively difficult to do. Therefore, an accurate inflation rate forecast is needed so that it can predict future inflation. This research aims to predict future inflation using the ARIMA method. The data used in this research is inflation in Balikpapan City from January 2016 to December 2022. From the analysis results, the best ARIMA method for predicting inflation in Balikpapan City is ARIMA([1,2,12],0,[6]) which has an RMSE value of 0.22886. Further research that can be carried out to improve the accuracy of Balikpapan City inflation forecasting is the use of combined methods or adding independent variables that are able to explain Balikpapan City inflation in the future.

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Published

2023-12-31

How to Cite

Lembang, G. R., Silfiani, M., & Fitria, I. (2023). Analisis Peramalan Inflasi Di Kota Balikpapan Menggunakan Metode ARIMA. SPECTA Journal of Technology, 7(3), 670–677. https://doi.org/10.35718/specta.v7i3.1026

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): SPECTA Journal of Technology

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2023 Irma Fitria

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Attribution-NoDerivs 4.0 Generic(CC BY-ND 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.